California Housing Market Forecast 2018
With the economy expected to continue growing, housing demand should remain strong and incrementally boost California’s housing market in 2018, though a shortage of available homes for sale and affordability constraints will be a challenge, according to the 2018 California Housing Market Forecast, released by California Association of Realtors (C.A.R.).
“Solid job growth and favorable interest rates will drive a strong demand for housing next year,” said C.A.R. President Geoff McIntosh. “However, a persistent shortage of homes for sale and increasing home prices will dictate the market as housing affordability diminishes for buyers struggling to get into the market.”
- The forecast sees a modest gain in existing single-family home sales of 1.0% next year, up slightly from the projected sales figure of 421,900 units for 2017. The 2017 figure is 1.3% higher compared to 2016.
- The average for 30-year, fixed mortgage interest rates will increase slightly to 4.3% in 2018, up from 4.0% in 2017 and 3.6% in 2016, but still will remain low by historical standards.
- The California median home price is forecast to increase 4.2% to $561,000 in 2018, following a projected 7.2% increase in 2017 to $538,500.
All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Taken from CAR.org 10/17/17
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California housing market eases into fall home buying season!
• Statewide, existing single-family home sales totaled 436,920 in September, up 2.2% from August and up 1.6% from September 2016.
• September’s statewide median home price was $555,410, down 1.8% from August and up 7.5% from September 2016.
• All the major regions experienced month-to-month and annual sales declines, with sales in the San Francisco Bay Area declining 4.2% from a year ago, the Inland Empire falling 4.0%, and the Los Angeles metro region decreasing 2.5% from September 2016.
• Statewide active listings continued to decline, dropping 11.2% from a year ago.
• C.A.R.’s Unsold Inventory Index fell from 3.5 months in September 2016 to 3.2 months in September 2017. The index measures the number of months needed to sell the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate. A six-to-seven-month supply is typical in a normal market.
• The median number of days it took to sell a single-family home was 20 days in September 2017, compared with 18 days in August and 28 days in September of 2016.
• C.A.R.’s sales price-to-list price ratio was 99.1% statewide in September 2017, 99.5% in August and 98.6% in September 2016. At the county level, San Francisco had the highest ratio at 116.6% and Mariposa had the lowest at 92.5%.
• Mortgage rates declined further in September as the 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaged 3.81%, down from 3.88% in August but was up from 3.46% in September 2016, according to Freddie Mac.
• All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. For tax, investment or ownership advice we suggest you contact an attorney or certified public accountant.
• Median = half more/half less. Taken from CAR.ORG 10/24/17
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Woo Hoo! Great News for Home Sales in the upcoming year!
The FHA loan limits will be increasing effective January 1, 2017.
In Riverside county, the 2017 FHA loan limit on a single family home will be $379,500, an increase from $356,500.
In San Diego county, the 2017 FHA loan limit on a single family home will be $612,950, an increase from $580,750.
In Orange county, the 2017 FHA loan limit on a single family home will be $636,150, an increase from $625,500.
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Conforming Loan Limits Will Increase in 2017
On November 23, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) announced that it would raise the baseline conforming loan limit for 2017. They are also increasing the limits for certain “higher-cost areas” that are above the baseline. This is in response to significant home-price gains that occurred during 2016.
In most counties across the country, the 2017 maximum conforming loan limit for a single-family home will be $424,100. (Riverside County included) That’s an increase of $7,100 from the 2016 baseline limit of $417,000. This is the first time federal housing officials have raised the baseline since 2006.
In higher-cost real estate markets, like Orange County, San Francisco and New York City, the limit for a single-family home loan can be as high as $636,150. San Diego County is increasing to $ 612,950.
Anything above these caps is considered a jumbo mortgage and subject to more scrutiny and higher rates.
What Is a Conforming Loan?
A conforming home loan is one that meets certain guidelines set forth by Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.
Freddie and Fannie are the two government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) that purchase mortgages, bundle and securitize them, and then sell them to investors through Wall Street and other channels.
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Southern California July 2016 Home Sales Volume Dips, however-
Median Sale Price Steady Month to Month and Up Year Over Year (*Median Price 7-15/7-16)
The typical mortgage payment that Southern California home buyers committed to in July 2016 was $1,662, down slightly from $1,683 in July 2015. Adjusted for inflation, the July 2016 payment was 43.6% below the $2,946 in July of 2007.
Cash Buyers accounted for 19.6% of July 2016 home sales. That is the lowest level for any month since October 2008. Cash sales peaked in February 2013 at 37.5% of the market. The monthly average for cash buyers since 1988 is about 16%.
Absentee buyers (investors and second home purchasers) bought 19.9% of South land homes sold in July 2016. The peak was 32.2% in February 2013. The monthly average for absentee buyers since 1988 is about 18.0%.
The median price paid for all Southern California homes sold in July 2016 was $465,000. That was the highest for any month since August 2007 when it was $500,000.
Home Sales of $500,000 or more accounted for 45% of all sales in July 2016, up from 40.6 in July 2015. The July share of homes selling for $500,000 or more was the highest for any month since the credit crunch hit in August 2007 when the $500,000-plus share was 49.4%.
*Median Price=half more/half less. * All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. For tax, ownership or investment advice we suggest you contact an attorney or certified public accountant. Taken from CoreLogic.com
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